Important
questions remain as cities move to deploy earthquake alert systems
While
rolling out earthquake early-warning tech is a step in the right direction, it
doesn't address how cities should prepare
the public for receiving an alert.
By
Michael Grass
Published
April 25, 2019
SEATTLE
— As earthquake early-warning (EEW) technology becomes more widely available on
the West Coast in the coming years, there will also be a considerable need for
public outreach efforts to effectively educate alert recipients on how they
should respond in the seconds before serious shaking arrives.
During
a public town hall meeting Tuesday night in Seattle, which is hosting the
Seismological Society of America's annual meeting this week, Harold Tobin,
director of the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network at the University of
Washington, asked an important question: "Do people understand what to do
when we send out an early warning alert?"
Beyond
addressing this question in reference to public-facing applications for quake
alerts, town hall panelists also looked at some of the pilot projects underway
to integrate EEW technology into infrastructure in order to protect vital
machinery and systems.
Increasing preparedness with ShakeAlert
The
ShakeAlert system on the West Coast, which has been under development in recent
years by the U.S. Geological Survey in collaboration with state and university
partners, relies on networks of seismometers that can quickly detect and
pinpoint the location of an earthquake from its initial P-waves and quickly
relay alerts before the major shaking arrives from the quake's more destructive
S-waves. It can't predict a quake, but once one is detected, recipients of the
alerts — whether they're people with smartphone apps or EEW-integrated building
systems and infrastructure networks — can take quick action before the serious
shaking starts.
In
some scenarios, that means there could be enough time for people inside buildings
to take shelter under a sturdy table and pedestrians to move away from
quake-vulnerable windows, brick facades and overhead hazards. In infrastructure
applications, EEW systems could automatically close valves on water tanks,
power down vital equipment or slow commuter trains to reduce the risk of a
derailment.
As
part of quake resiliency initiatives undertaken by Los Angeles Mayor Eric
Garcetti's administration, the nation's second-largest city built and deployed
a ShakeAlert app for public use in January. It's the first such app in the
nation.
The
system can send out an alert to the public for earthquakes with magnitudes of
5.0 and higher. Southern California has not yet seen a quake reach that
threshold since the app's launch, but the region continues to face major
seismic threats from numerous faults. The app currently works only for users in
Los Angeles County, but there are efforts underway to expand it to other places
on the West Coast, including Seattle, which Tobin said could get a ShakeAlert
App in one to two years.
The
amount of lead-time before the serious shaking starts — anywhere from a few
seconds to upwards of a minute in some cases — depends on the distance an alert
recipient is from the quake's epicenter and ShakeAlert network's ability to
quickly relay a warning. (Existing emergency notification systems for amber
alerts and severe weather warnings are currently too slow for seismic events.)
The closer you are to a quake's epicenter, the less time you have to react to
an early-warning alert.
Expanding EEW networks
While
authorities in Japan and Mexico built their own earthquake early-warning
systems decades ago, the U.S. has lagged behind the development of its own EEW
network due to a lack of federal and state funding. But there's been more
momentum in recent years to secure funding, which has led to more seismometers
deployed on the West Coast and the building of a prototype system, which has
been successfully tested.
Expanding
EEW networks to the entirety of the West Coast will cost $40 million in capital
investments and $28 million in annual operating expenses, Tobin said.
For
the West Coast's most populous areas, EEW alerts could save many lives in some
of their most-feared quake scenarios. In Southern California, for instance,
quake alert recipients in downtown Los Angeles could have a one-minute advance
warning for a 7.8 magnitude quake that originates on the southern San Andreas
Fault Zone near the Salton Sea, about 165 miles away. But there are, of course,
other Big One scenarios. Los Angeles would have far less time to react to a
quake that originates closer to the city — or directly under it.
In
the Pacific Northwest, the Big One scenario that greatly concerns seismologists
and emergency managers is the next magnitude 9.0 megaquake along the Cascadia
Subduction Zone, which lies off the coasts of Washington and Oregon. When EEW
systems are deployed more broadly in the coming years, alerts recipients in
Seattle and Portland might have upwards of one minute to respond before the
serious shaking reaches them in some scenarios involving the subduction zone. Those
directly along the Pacific coast will face far more severe shaking and a
quake-generated tsunami that thousands will need to outrun in order to reach
safety on higher ground.
Sandi
Doughton, a Seattle Times reporter and author of "Full Rip 9.0: The Next
Big Earthquake in the Pacific Northwest," noted during the event that on
the coast, EEW could give people "a head start" out of the inundation
zone. But even when EEW eventually becomes available for coastal residents, the
likely quake scenarios there remain particularly dire.
Of
the seven projects recently announced by Seattle Mayor Jenny Durkan's
Innovation Advisory Council, two are earthquake related. Amazon Web Services
and Twitter will be working with Seattle's Office of Emergency Management to develop
a local ShakeAlert prototype and a damage assessment tool.
Doughton
said that while the ongoing development of EEW applications is promising and
potentially life-saving for alert recipients, it's no substitute for
substantive state and local policy changes needed to mandate seismic upgrades
for vulnerable buildings, an area where the Pacific Northwest has lagged behind
California.
For
public officials, Doughton said "there are many other things they could be
doing that aren't as sexy and not as flashy" when it comes to seismic
resiliency. "I think a lot of politicians latch onto [EEW technology]
because it's an easy fix."
In
the meantime, discussions are underway among U.S. seismologists, emergency
management professionals and social scientists about how earthquake alert
messages should be crafted to be the most effective for recipients.
Learning from Mexico City
Many
on the West Coast have been closely watching Mexico City, which deployed a
quake alert system in 1991 that relays warnings via a network of 1,200 sirens —
there are also private-sector providers that use push notifications to relay
alerts to cellphones — and has years of experience observing how residents
respond to quake alerts, including false alarms or quakes that are identified
by seismic networks but don't necessarily produce detectable shaking in the
capital.
In
September 2017, there were five events that triggered alerts in Mexico City,
including a false alarm, a smaller quake, and then on Sept. 19, a pre-planned
citywide earthquake drill followed by an actual magnitude 7.1 quake a few hours
later that damaged many buildings and killed a few hundred people.
"Mexico
City ran those experiments for us" in September 2017, said Scott Miles of
the University of Washington's Department of Human Centered Design and
Engineering, who as a social scientist has been part of a team studying how
people respond to EEW alerts.
Among
the best practices from Mexico City's experience that Miles cited: Once an
alert is sent out, be ready to send out a follow-up message or messages that
offer not only additional information on the seismic event, but also consistent
information. It's also crucial to be ready to send out a follow-up message
after false alarms.
EEW’s impact on infrastructure
While
deploying EEW technology to the public presents tough questions on how to
design and implement effective public education, efforts to integrate
early-warning applications into infrastructure continues.
In
Spring 2018, Bothell, WA-based RH2 Engineering worked to deploy the first EEW
applications for a Seattle-area water utility, the Northeast Sammamish Sewer
and Water District, as part of a ShakeAlert deployment pilot project.
Michele
Campbell, a RH2 Engineering earthquake early warning program manager, said that
for a water utility, an EEW alert system is valuable beyond protecting
infrastructure. It's about protecting frontline workers, too.
"Earthquake
early warning systems could give them precious seconds to jump out of the way
of dangerous machinery," Campbell said, noting that protecting workers is
of utmost importance when they'll be needed to immediately start recovery
efforts. In the case of the next major quake along the Cascadia Subduction
Zone, some water systems in the region are expected to be offline for a few
weeks in more rosy projections to many months in the worst scenarios.
Deploying
EEW-integrated valves to water tanks can help preserve a utility's water supply
and protect vulnerable equipment, like pumps, from power surges. Because each
water system is different in its design and faces various risks depending on an
earthquake's size, severity and origin, Campbell said that EEW-integrated water
utilities, with pre-programmed automated actions, might choose to close valves
on certain tanks and power down particular pumps while trying to maintain
operations elsewhere, depending on the immediate threat.
"It's
relatively low-cost compared to other seismic preparedness actions,"
Campbell said
https://www.smartcitiesdive.com/news/important-questions-remain-as-cities-move-to-deploy-earthquake-alert-system/553447/
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