GEM: EARTHQUAKE-RISK MAPS

07 December 2018
Earthquake-risk maps pinpoint world’s most vulnerable areas
Indonesia and India are among the countries with the most people at risk.

A man surveys damage from a magnitude-7.5 earthquake that hit Indonesia's Sulawesi province in October.Credit: Hariandi Hafid/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty

Three new maps reveal which parts of the globe are most at risk of earthquakes — and where most people are vulnerable to seismic disaster.
The first map, of global seismic hazard, shows in unprecedented detail which parts of the globe are prone to earthquakes — such as the ‘Ring of Fire’ around the Pacific Ocean.

The second, of global seismic risk, highlights areas where buildings are likely to be damaged by the ground shaking, such as Guatemala. The third, of global exposure, looks at the number of buildings around the world — emphasizing the danger in highly populated regions such as Indonesia and India.

The charts, released on 5 December, are the culmination of a years-long international effort coordinated by the Global Earthquake Model (GEM), a nonprofit organization in Pavia, Italy, that works with emergency management officials, geological surveys, and disaster-preparedness groups worldwide.

GEM expect to update the maps, which are built on an open-source platform, roughly once a year.

M Pagani. et al./Global Earthquake Model

The seismic-hazard map is the first major global effort of its kind since 1999, says Marco Pagani, a hazard coordinator at GEM who led its development. It incorporates more than 30 national and regional models from groups such as the US Geological Survey and the China Earthquake Administration. For countries or regions without updated models, such as Colombia, GEM worked with local experts to produce them.

The new map reflects recent scientific insights into earthquake risk around subduction zones, where one plate of Earth's crust slides beneath another in places such as Japan and Chile. The analysis identifies more hazards around the Ring of Fire as compared to places like the Himalayas that the 1999 map emphasized, Pagani says.

GEM's risk and exposure maps explore what the chances of earthquakes mean for human lives. “We’re not just talking about shaking — we’re talking about human losses and the collapse of buildings,” says Vitor Silva, the risk coordinator at GEM who led the team that produced the risk and exposure maps.

Working with local contacts, Silva's group compiled information such as what material buildings are made of, how many stories high they are, and the chances that they conform to local earthquake-resistant building codes. For places where data was limited or nonexistent, such as South Sudan, the team used satellite images to analyze building types.

Two-thirds of the world's buildings turn out to be located in just 15 countries, says Silva. Knowing where the vulnerable buildings are could help local officials decide where to allocate resources for beefing up construction, he says.

Future versions of the maps could include factors like the risk of tsunamis — or use machine learning to analyze how exposure changes throughout the day, as people flow into and out of cities for work.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07705-2?fbclid=IwAR1V18xIlGfT4_tUyLlj38rARLn9DWsGZTGvcWEANeRw6PyW3MN61OIG_4A doi: 10.1038/d41586-018-07705-2

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https://maps.openquake.org/map/global-seismic-hazard-map/#3/21.94/56.67

https://hazard.openquake.org/gem/models/

Model Developers and References

Alaska, USA [ALS] - 2007 Developed by the United States Geological Survey and converted into the OpenQuake engine by GEM. Authors: R.L. Wesson, O.S. Boyd, C.S. Mueller, C.G. Bufe, A.D. Frankel, M.D. Petersen Website: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/hazmaps Publications: R.L. Wesson et al., “Revision of time-Independent probabilistic seismic hazard maps for Alaska,” U.S. Geological Survey, Open-File Report 2007–1043.

Arabian Peninsula [ARB] - 2018 Developed by the Saudi Geological Survey and converted into the OpenQuake engine by GEM. Authors: H. Zahran, V. Sokolov, S. El-Hadidy Youssef, W. W. Alraddadi, M. J. Roobol, I. C. F. Stewart, M. El-Hadidy Website: https://www.sgs.org.sa/english/naturalhazards/pages/ncev.aspx Publications: V. Sokolov et al., “Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Saudi Arabia using spatially smoothed seismicity and analysis of hazard uncertainty,” Bull Earthquake Eng, vol. 15, no. 7, pp. 2695–2735, Jul. 2017. H. M. Zahran et al., “Preliminary probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia based on combined areal source model: Monte Carlo approach and sensitivity analyses,” Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, vol. 77, pp. 453–468, Oct. 2015. H. M. Zahran et al., “On the development of a seismic source zonation model for seismic hazard assessment in western Saudi Arabia,” J Seismol, vol. 20, no. 3, pp. 747–769, Jul. 2016.

Australia [AUS] - 2018 Developed by Geoscience Australia. Authors: T. Allen, J. Griffin, M. Leonard, D. Clark, H. Ghasemi Website: http://www.ga.gov.au/about/projects/safety/nsha Publications: T. Allen et al., "The 2018 National Seismic Hazard Assessment for Australia: model overview," Geoscience Australia Record 2018/27, Canberra, doi: 10.11636/Record.2018.027. T. Allen et al., "The 2018 National Seismic Hazard Assessment for Australia: model input files," Geoscience Australia Record 2018/32, Canberra, doi: 10.11636/Record.2018.032.

Canada [CAN] - 2015 Developed by Natural Resources Canada, partly adjusted to the OpenQuake engine by GEM. Authors: J. Adams, S. Halchuk, T. Allen, G. Rogers Website: http://www.earthquakescanada.nrcan.gc.ca Publications: S. Halchuk et al., “Fifth Generation Seismic Hazard Model Input Files as Proposed to Produce Values for the 2015 National Building Code of Canada,” Geological Survey of Canada, Open File 7576, 2014.

Caribbean and Central America [CCA] - 2018 Developed within the project CCARA. Cuba and Puerto Rico were included a posteriori by GEM. Organisations involved in CCARA: GEM - University of Costa Rica, Costa Rica - Costa Rican Institute of Electricity, Costa Rica - Nicaraguan Institute of Territorial Studies, Nicaragua - Catholic University of El Salvador, El Salvador - Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources, El Salvador - Panama University, Panama. Authors: J. Garcia-Pelaez, R. Gee, R. Styron, V. Poggi Website: https://www.globalquakemodel.org/gem

Central Asia [CEA] - 2018 Developed within the EMCA project, coordinated by the Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, German Research Centre for Geosciences, Germany. Organisations involved: Institute of Geology, Earthquake Engineering and Seismology of the Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Tajikistan - Institute of Geophysical Research, Kazakhstan - International University of Innovation Technologies, Kyrgyzstan - Kyrgyzstan Institute of Seismology, Kyrgyzstan - Central-Asian Institute of Applied Geosciences, Kyrgyzstan - Institute of Mechanics and Seismic Stability of Structures of the Academy of Sciences of Uzbekistan, Uzbekistan - Mavlyanov Institute of Seismology, Uzbekistan. Authors: S. Ullah, D. Bindi, M. Pilz, L. Danciu, G.A. Weatherill, E. Zuccolo, A. Ischuk, N.N. Mikhailova, K. Abdrakhmatov, S. Parolai, K. Fleming Website: http://www.emca-gem.org Publications: S. Ullah et al., “Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Central Asia,” Ann. Geophys., vol. 58, no. 1, Apr. 2015.

China [CHN] - 2015 Developed by the Institute of Geophysics of the China Earthquake Administration and converted into the OpenQuake engine by Changlong Li within a collaboration between the Institute of Geophysics of the China Earthquake Administration, the Swiss Seismological Service, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Switzerland and GEM. Authors: M. Gao, G. Chen, F. Xie, X. Xu, X. Li, Y. Yu, S. Li, B. Zhou, H. Pan, Y. Lu, F. Zhao, J. Wu Website: http://www.gb18306.cn Publications: General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine of the People's Republic of China, China National Standardization Management Committee. 2015. China seismic zoning map (in Chinese). GB 18306-2015.

Europe [EUR] - 2013 Developed within the EU-funded SHARE project, coordinated by the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich, Switzerland. Organisations involved: Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, German Research Centre for Geosciences, Germany - The National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Italy - Joseph Fourier University, France - University of Pavia, Italy - Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece - The French Geological Survey, France - Center of Research in Astronomy, Astrophysics, and Geophysics, Algeria - Instituto Superior Tecnico, Portugal Bogazici University, Turkey - National Laboratory for Civil Engineering, Portugal - Middle East Technical University, Turkey - Montenegro Seismological Observatory, Montenegro - Natural Environment Research Council, United Kingdom - National Institute for Earth Physics, Romania - National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Greece - Norwegian Seismic Array, Norway - Royal Observatory of Belgium, Belgium. Updated version of the model to be released in 2020. Authors: J. Woessner, L. Danciu, D. Giardini, H. Crowley, F. Cotton, G. Grünthal, G. Valensise, R. Arvidsson, R. Basili, M. Betül Demircioglu, S. Hiemer, Carlo Meletti, R. W. Musson, A.N. Rovida, K, Sesetyan, M. Stucchi Website: http://www.share-eu.org Publications: J. Woessner et al., “The 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model: key components and results,” Bull Earthquake Eng, vol. 13, no. 12, pp. 3553–3596, Jul. 2015. Giardini et al "Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe (SHARE): Online Data Resource", doi: 10.12686/SED-00000001-SHARE, 2013.

Hawaii, USA [HAW] - 1998 Developed by the United States Geological Survey and converted into the OpenQuake engine by GEM. Authors: F. W. Klein, A.D. Frankel, C.S. Mueller, R.L. Wesson, P.G. Okubo Website: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/hazmaps Publications: F. W. Klein, et al. “Seismic Hazard in Hawaii: High Rate of Large Earthquakes and Probabilistic Ground-Motion Maps,” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, vol. 91, no. 3, pp. 479–498, Jun. 2001.

Indonesia [IDN] - 2017 Seismic hazard model for Indonesia created by the Team for Updating Seismic Hazard Maps of Indonesia. The team belongs to the National Center for Earthquake Studies under the Center for Research and Development of Housing and Settlements of the Ministry of Public Works and People Housing. Ministries involved: Ministry of Public Works and People Housing; Ministry of Energy and Mineral resources; Ministry of Transportation; Ministry of Research, Technology and Higher Education; and National Disaster Management Authority of Indonesia. Organisations involved: Bureau of Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics; Indonesian Research Institute; Geospatial Information Agency; Center for Research and Development of Housing and Settlements; Centre of Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation; Indonesian Academy of Sciences; Bandung Institute of Technology; University of Indonesia; University of Gajah Mada; University of Diponegoro; Indonesian Society for Geotechnical Engineering; and Indonesian Disaster Expert Association. The team collaborated internationally with Geoscience Australia, Australia. Authors: M. Irsyam., L. Faizal, D. Natawidjaja, I. Meilano, S. Widiyantoro, W. Triyoso, A. Rudiyanto, S. Hidayati, M. Asrurifak, M. Ridwan, P. Cummins Publications: M. Irsyam, S. Widiyantoro, D. Natawidjaja, I. Meilano, A. Rudiyanto, S. Hidayati, W. Triyoso, N. R. Hanifa, D. Djarwadi, L. Faizal, Sunarjito (editor), Team for Updating of Seismic Hazard Maps of Indonesia 2017. 2017. Earthquake Source and Hazard Maps of Indonesia 2017. National Center for Earthquake Studies (PusGen), Research Center for Housing and Human Settlement, Directorate General for Research and Development, Ministry oof Public Works and People Housing, ISBN 978-602-5489-01-3. (in Indonesian)

India and surroundings [IND] - 2012 Developed by Nath and Thingbaijam (2012), revised and implemented in OpenQuake by N. Ackerley (Natural Resources Canada). Authors: N. Ackerley, K.K.S. Thingbaijam, S.K. Nath Publications: Nath, S. K., and K. K. S. Thingbaijam. "Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of India." Seismological Research Letters 83.1 (2012): 135-149.

Japan [JPN] - 2014 Developed by the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion and converted into the OpenQuake engine format within a collaboration between the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience, Japan, and GEM. Authors: H. Fujiwara, N. Morikawa, S. Kawai, S. Aoi, S. Senna, T. Maeda, H. Azuma, K. X. Hao, A. Iwaki, K. Wakamatsu, M. Imoto, N. Hasegawa, T. Okumura, T. Hayakawa, M. Takahashi Website: http://www.j-shis.bosai.go.jp/en Publications: H. Fujiwara et al., “Technical reports on national seismic hazard maps for Japan,” Technical Note of the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience 336, 2009. H. Fujiwara et al., “Improved seismic hazard assessment after the 2011 great East Japan earthquake,” Technical Note of the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience 399, (in Japanese) 2015.

Korean Peninsula [KOR] - 2018 Assembled by GEM. Website: https://www.globalquakemodel.org/gem

Mexico [MEX] - 2018 Developed by GEM. Authors: J. Garcia-Pelaez, R. Gee, R. Styron Website: https://www.globalquakemodel.org/gem

Middle East [MIE] - 2016 Developed within the EMME project, jointly coordinated by the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Switzerland, and the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, Turkey. Institutions involved: International Institute for Earthquake Engineering ans Seismology, Iran; Middle East Technical University, Turkey; Sakarya University, Turkey; University of Peshawar, Pakistan; Yarmouk University, Jordan; American University of Beirut, Lebanon; Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University, Georgia; National Academy of Sciences, Armenia; National Academy of Sciences, Azerbaijan. Authors: D. Giardini, L. Danciu, M. Erdik, K. Sesetyan, MB Demircioğlu, S. Akkar, L. Gulen, M. Zare, S. Adamia, A. Ansari, A. Arakelyan, A. Askan, M. Avanesyan, H. Babayan, T. Chelidze, R. Durgaryan, A. Elias, H. Hamzehloo, K. Hessami, D. Kalafat, O. Kale, A. Karakhanyan, MA. Khan, T. Mamadli, M. Al-Qarouti, M. Sayab, N. Tsereteli, M. Utkucu, O. Varazanashvili, M. Waseem, H. Yalçın, MT. Yılmaz Website: http://www.efehr.org Publications: L. Danciu, Ö. Kale, and S. Akkar, “The 2014 Earthquake Model of the Middle East: ground motion model and uncertainties”, Bull Earthquake Eng (2018) 16:3497–3533. L. Danciu et al., “The 2014 Earthquake Model of the Middle East: seismogenic sources”, Bull Earthquake Eng (2018) 16:3465–3496. K. Sesetyan et al., "The 2014 seismic hazard model of the Middle East: overview and results", Bull Earthquake Eng (2018) 16:3535–3566

Northern Africa [NAF] - 2018 Developed by GEM. Authors: V. Poggi, J. Garcia-Pelaez, R. Styron Website: https://www.globalquakemodel.org/gem

Northeastern Asia [NEA] - 2018 Developed by GEM. Authors: V. Poggi, J. Garcia-Pelaez, R. Styron Website: https://www.globalquakemodel.org/gem

Northwestern Asia [NWA] - 2018 Developed by GEM and the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Switzerland. Authors: V. Poggi, L. Danciu Website: https://www.globalquakemodel.org/gem

New Zealand [NZL] - 2010 - corrected GNS Science led the development of the model and converted it into the OpenQuake engine. Authors: E.R. Abbott, N. Horspool, M. Gerstenberger, R. Huso, C. Van Houtte, G. McVerry, S. Canessa Authors (2010 model): M. Stirling, G. McVerry, M. Gerstenberger, N. Litchfield, R. Van Dissen, K. Berryman, P. Barnes, L. Wallace, P. Villamor, R. Langridge, G. Lamarche, S. Nodder, M. Reyners, B. Bradley, D. Rhoades, W. Smith, A. Nicol, J. Pettinga, K. Clark, K. Jacobs) Website: https://www.gns.cri.nz Publications: Stirling, M. W. , McVerry, G. H. , Gerstenberger, M. C. , Litchfield, N. J. , Van Dissen, R. J. , Berryman, K. R. , Barnes, P. , Wallace, L. M. , Villamor, P. , Langridge, R. M. , Lamarche, G. , Nodder, S. , Reyners, M. E. , Bradley, B. , Rhoades, D. A. , Smith, W. D. , Nicol, A. , Pettinga, J. , Clark, K. J. , and Jacobs, K., (2012) “National Seismic Hazard Model for New Zealand: 2010 Update,” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, vol. 102, no. 4, pp. 1514–1542, Aug. 2012.

Pacific Islands [PAC] - 2018 Developed by GEM. Authors: K. Johnson Website: https://www.globalquakemodel.org/gem

Philippines [PHL] - 2017-2018 Developed jointly by the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology and GEM. Authors: PHIVOLCS, K. Johnson, R. Styron Website: https://www.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph and https://www.globalquakemodel.org/gem Publications: PHIVOLCS, "The Philippine Earthquake Model," 2017.

Papua New Guinea [PNG] - 2016 Developed within a collaboration between the Port Moresby Geophysical Observatory and Geoscience Australia. Authors: H. Ghasemi, C. McKee, M. Leonard, P. Cummins, M. Moihoi, S. Spiliopoulos, F. Taranu, E. Buri Publications: Ghasemi et al., "Probabilistic seismic hazard map of Papua New Guinea." Natural Hazards vol. 81, no. 2 , pp. 1003-1025, Jan. 2016.

South America [SAM] - 2018 Initially developed within the SARA project and updated by GEM. Organisations involved: GEM, Colombian Geological Survey, Colombia - National University of Colombia, Colombia - University of Valle, Colombia - Venezuelan Foundation for Seismological Research, Venezuela - University of Merida, Venezuela - National Observatory, Brazil, Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences, Brazil - Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil - National Polytechnic University, Ecuador - San Calixto Observatory - Bolivia - University of Chile, Chile - University of Concepción, Chile - Pontifical Catholic University of Chile, Chile - Research Center for Disaster Risk Management, Chile - Peruvian Geological Service, Peru - University of San Luis, Argentina - University of Antofagasta, Argentina - National Institute of Seismic Prevention, Argentina - National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Italy. Authors: J. Garcia-Pelaez, M. Pagani, K. Johnson, R. Styron, V. Poggi Website: https://www.globalquakemodel.org/gem

Continental Southeastern Asia [SEA] - 2018 Developed by the Earth Observatory of Singapore and Mahidol University. Authors: C.-H. Chan, T. Ornthammarath

Sub-Saharan Africa [SSA] - 2018 Developed by GEM in collaboration with AfricaArray within the project SSAHARA. Authors: V. Poggi, R. Durrheim, G.M. Tuluka, G.A. Weatherill, R. Gee, M. Pagani, A. Nyblade, D. Delvaux Website: https://www.globalquakemodel.org/gem Publications: V. Poggi et al., “Assessing seismic hazard of the East African Rift: a pilot study from GEM and AfricaArray,” Bull Earthquake Eng, vol 15, no. 11, pp. 4499–4529, November 2017.

Taiwan [TEM] - 2015 Developed within the Taiwan Earthquake Model initiative, a collaboration between various Taiwanese research institutions. Authors: Y.-J. Wang, C.-H. Chan, Y.-T. Lee, K.-F. Ma, J.-H. Shyu, R.-J. Rau, C.-T. Cheng Website: http://tec.earth.sinica.edu.tw/TEM/index.php Publications: Wang et al., "Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments for Taiwan," Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci., 27, no. 3, 325–340, doi: 10.3319/ TAO.2016.05.03.01(TEM)

California, USA [UCF] - 2014 Developed within a project supported by the United States Geological Survey, the Southern California Earthquake Center, the California Geological Survey and the California Earthquake Authority. The model was converted into the OpenQuake engine by GEM. Authors: E.H. Field, G.P. Biasi, P. Bird, T.E. Dawson, K.R. Felzer, D.D. Jackson, K.M. Johnson, T.H. Jordan, C. Madden, A.J. Michael, K.R. Milner, M.T. Page, T. Parsons, P.M. Powers, B.E. Shaw, W.R. Thatcher, R.J. Weldon II, Y. Zeng Website: http://wgcep.org/ucerf3 Publications: E.H. Field et al., “Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3)—The Time‐Independent Model,” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, vol. 104, no. 3, pp. 1122–1180, Jun. 2014.

Conterminous United States of America [USA] - 2014 Developed by the United States Geological Survey and converted into the OpenQuake engine by GEM. Authors: M.D. Petersen, M.P. Moschetti, P.M. Powers, C.S. Mueller, K. M. Haller, A.D. Frankel, Y. Zeng, S. Rezaeian, S.C. Harmsen, O.S. Boyd, E.H. Field, R. Chen, K.S. Rukstales, N. Luco, R.L. Wheeler, R.A. Williams, A.H. Olsen Website: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/hazmaps Publications M. D. Petersen et al., “Documentation for the 2014 update of the United States national seismic hazard maps,” U.S. Geological Survey, Open-File Report 2014–1091, 2014.

Western Africa [WAF] - 2018 Developed by GEM. Authors: V. Poggi Website: https://www.globalquakemodel.org/gem

South Africa [ZAF] - 2018 Developed by the Council of Geoscience, South Africa. Authors : V. Midzi, B. Manzunzu, T. Mulabisana, B.S. Zulu, T. Pule, S. Myendeki, G. W. Rathod Website: http://www.geoscience.org.za Publications: V. Midzi et al., “The Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of South Africa,” Council of Geosciences Report No. 2016-0064, 2016.