Powered By Blogger

Donnerstag, 31. Oktober 2019

EARTHQUAKE SIZE AND MAGNITUDE

Earthquake Size


Earthquake Magnitude

The magnitude is the most often cited measure of an earthquake's size, but it is not the only measure, and in fact, there are different types of earthquake magnitude. Early estimates of earthquake size were based on non-instrumental measures of the earthquakes effects. For example, we could use values such as the number of fatalities or injuries, the maximum value of shaking intensity, or the area of intense shaking. The problem with these measures is that they don't correlate well. The damage and devastation produced by an earthquake will depend on its location, depth, proximity to populated regions, as well as its "true" size. Even for earthquakes close enough to population centers values such as maximum intensity and the area experiencing a particular level of shaking did not correlate well.
With the invention and deployment of seismometers it became possible to accurately locate earthquakes and measure the ground motion produced by seismic waves.
Seismogram Amplitude
The development and deployment of seismometers lead to many changes in earthquake studies, magnitude was the first quantitative measure of earthquake size based on seismograms. The maximum or "peak" ground motion is defined as the largest absolute value of ground motion recorded on a seismogram. In the example above the surface wave has the largest deflection, so it determines the peak amplitude.
It was natural for these instrumental measures to be used to compare earthquakes, and one of the first ways of quantifying earthquakes using seismograms was the magnitude.

Richter's Magnitude Scale

In 1931 a Japanese seismologist named Kiyoo Wadati constructed a chart of maximum ground motion versus distance for a number of earthquakes and noted that the plots for different earthquakes formed parallel, curved lines (the larger earthquakes produced larger amplitudes). The fact that earthquakes of different size generated curves that were roughly parallel suggested that a single number could quantify the relative size of different earthquakes.
In 1935 Charles Richter constructed a similar diagram of peak ground motion versus distance and used it to create the first earthquake magnitude scale (a logarithmic relationship between earthquake size and observed peak ground motion). He based his scale on an analogy with the stellar brightness scale commonly used in astronomy which is also similar to the pH scale used to measure acidity (pH is a logarithmic measure of the Hydrogen ion concentration in a solution).
Richter MAgnitude Data
Sample of the data used by Richter to construct the magnitude scale for southern California. The symbols represent observed peak ground motions for earthquakes recorded during January of 1932 (different symbols represent different earthquakes). The dashed lines represent the reference curve for the decrease in peak-motion amplitude with increasing distance from the earthquake. A magnitude 3.0 earthquake is defined as the size event that generates a maximum ground motion of 1 millimeter (mm) at 100 km distance.
To complete the construction of the magnitude scale, Richter had to establish a reference value and identify the rate at which the peak amplitudes decrease with distance from an earthquake. He established a reference value for earthquake magnitude when he defined the magnitude as the base-ten logarithm of the maximum ground motion (in micrometers) recorded on a Wood-Anderson short-period seismometer one hundred kilometers from the earthquake. Richter was pragmatic in his definition, and chose a value for a magnitude zero that insured that most of the earthquakes routinely recorded would have positive magnitudes. Also, the Wood-Anderson short-period instrument that Richter chose for his reference records seismic waves with a period of about 0.8 seconds, roughly the vibration periods that we feel and that damage our buildings and other structures.
Wodd-Andserson Seismogram
Example seismogram recorded on a Wood-Anderson short period seismogram. The top waveform shows the broad-band displacement, the lower trace shows the corresponding ground motion that would register on a Wood-Anderson seismograph.
Richter also developed a distance correction to account for the variation in maximum ground motion with distance from an earthquake (the dashed curves shown in the above diagram show his relationship for southern California). The precise rate that the peak ground motions decrease with distance depends on the regional geology and thus the magnitude scale for different regions is slightly dependent on the "distance correction curve".
Thus originally, Richter's scale was specifically designed for application in southern California. Richter's method became widely used because it was simple, required only the location of the earthquake (to get the distance) and a quick measure of the peak ground motion, was more reliable than older measures such as intensity. It became widely used, well established, and forms the basis for many of the measures that we continue to use today. Generally the magnitude is computed from seismographs from as many seismic recording stations as are available and the average value is used as our estimate of an earthquake's size.
We call the Richter's original magnitude scale ML (for "local magnitude"), but the press usually reports all magnitudes as Richter magnitudes.

Teleseismic Magnitude Scales

To study earthquakes outside southern California, Richter extended the concepts of his local magnitude scale for global application. In the 1930's through the 1950's together with Beno Gutenberg, Richter constructed magnitude scales to compare the size of earthquakes outside of California. Ideally they wanted a magnitude scale that gave the same value if the earthquake is recorded locally or from a great distance. That way you could compare the seismicity of earthquakes in different parts of Earth. But the extension of methods to estimate the local magnitude is complicated because the type of wave generating the largest vibrations and the period of the largest vibrations recorded at different distances from an earthquake varies. Near the earthquake the largest wave is a short-period S-wave, at greater distances longer-period surface waves become dominant.
To exploit the best recorded signal (the largest) magnitude scales were developed for "teleseismic" (distant) observations using P waves or Rayleigh waves. Eventually the teleseismic P-wave scale became known as "body-wave magnitude" and the Rayleigh wave based measure came to be called "surface-wave magnitude". The surface-wave magnitude is usually measured from 20s period Rayleigh waves, which are very well transmitted along Earth's surface and thus usually well observed.
mb and Ms
Gutenberg and Richter developed two magnitudes for application to distant earthquakes: mb is measured using the first five seconds of a teleseismic (distant) P-wave and Ms is derived from the maximum amplitude Rayleigh wave.

Problems with Magnitude Scales

There are several problems associated with using magnitude to quantify earthquakes, and all are a direct consequence of trying to summarize a process as complex as an earthquake in a single number. First, since the distance corrections depend on geology each region must have a slightly different definition of local magnitude. Also, since at different distances we rely on different waves to measure the magnitude, the estimates of earthquake size don't always precisely agree. Also, deep earthquakes do not generate surface waves as well as shallow earthquakes and magnitude estimates based on surface waves are biased low for deep earthquakes.
Also, measures of earthquake size based on the maximum ground shaking do not account for another important characteristic of large earthquakes - they shake the ground longer. Consider the example shown in the diagram below. The two seismograms are the P-waves generated by magnitude 6.1 and 7.7 earthquakes from Kamchatka. The body-wave magnitude for these two earthquakes is much closer because the rule for estimating body-wave magnitude is to use the maximum amplitude in the first five seconds of shaking. As you can see, the difference in early shaking between the two earthquakes is much less than the shaking a little bit later which indicates the larger difference in size.
Short-Period Saturation
Teleseismic (distant) P-waves generated by two earthquakes in Kamchatka and recorded at station CCM, Cathedral Caves, MO, US. The signals that would be recorded on a on a short-period seismometer are shown using the same scale. The time is referenced to the onset of rupture for each earthquake.
Even after 5 seconds the amplitude ratio of these P waves does not accurately represent the difference in size of these two earthquakes. The magnitude 6.1 event probably ruptured for only a few seconds, the magnitude 7.7 ruptured for closer to a minute.

Earthquake Dimensions - Rupture Size and Offset

Another measure of earthquake size is the area of the fault that slipped during the earthquake. During large earthquakes the part of the fault that ruptures may be hundreds of kilometers long and 10s of kilometers deep. Smaller earthquake rupture smaller portions of the fault. Thus the area of the rupture is an indicator of the earthquake size.
Earthquake Rupture Size
The size of the area that slips during an earthquake is increases with earthquake size. The shaded regions on the fault surface are the areas that rupture during different size events. The largest earthquakes generally rupture the entire depth of the fault, which is controlled by temperature. The temperature increases with depth to a point where the rocks become plastic and no longer store the elastic strain energy necessary to fail suddenly.
Usually we estimate fault rupture areas using the location of aftershocks, but we may also estimate the area of rupture from seismograms if the observations are of high quality.
Another measure of an earthquake size is the dimension of the offset produced during an earthquake - that is, how far did the two sides move? Small earthquakes have slips that are less than a centimeter, large earthquakes move the rocks about 10-20 meters.

Seismic Moment and Moment Magnitude

Seismic moment is a quantity that combines the area of the rupture and the amount of fault offset with a measure of the strength of the rocks - the shear modulus m.
Seismic Moment = m x (Rupture Area) x (Fault Offset)
Usually we measure the moment directly from seismograms, since the size of the very long-period waves generated by an earthquake is proportional to the seismic moment. The physical units of seismic moment are force x distance, or dyne-cm.
For scientific studies, the moment is the measure we use since it has fewer limitations than the magnitudes, which often reach a maximum value (we call that magnitude saturation).
To compare seismic moment with magnitude, Mw , we use a formula constructed by Hiroo Kanamori of the California Institute of Seismology:
Mw = 2 / 3 * log(Seismic Moment) - 10.73
where the units of the moment are in dyne-cm.

Magntiude Summary

The symbols used to represent the different magnitudes are
Magnitude
Symbol
Wave
Period
Local (Richter)
ML
S or Surface Wave*
0.8 s
Body-Wave
mb
P
1 s
Surface-Wave
Ms
Rayleigh
20 s
Moment
Mw
Rupture Area, Slip
> 100 s
*at the distances appropriate for local magnitude, either the S-wave or the surface waves generally produce the largest vibrations.

Giant Earthquakes

The seismic moment and moment magnitude give us the tool we need to compare the size of the largest quakes. We find that the "moment release" in shallow earthquakes throughout the entire century is dominated by several large subduction zone earthquake sequences. First, let's compare the amount of energy released in the different plate settings:

or we can just compare the largest four earthquakes (those with magnitudes greater than 9) with all the other shallow earthquakes.


Back to EAS 193 Home | Ammon's Home | Department of Geosciences
Prepared by: Charles J. Ammon (Last updated:8/1/101 )
http://eqseis.geosc.psu.edu/~cammon/HTML/Classes/IntroQuakes/Notes/earthquake_size.html

How earthquake magnitude scales work

February 16, 2012

by Paul Bodin

We're generally aware that we can barely feel an M3 earthquake, an M6 event can cause some damage, and an M9 can wreak havoc on an entire coast.  But what do those numbers mean, and why do seismologists talk about several different magnitude scales?

Here's a dirty little secret: most seismologists hate to talk about magnitude scales with non-seismologists, for several good and related reasons. First, the whole concept of magnitude reduces a complex and variable process--slip on fault patches with differing strength and frictional properties driven by non-uniformly stressed rocks--to a single number. Second, magnitudes are interpretations derived from quantitative measurements (of ground motion recorded on seismographs), not actual measurements themselves. And third, non-seismologists frequently are impatient with the uncertainties arising from the two reasons just stated. Often folks focus on differences between magnitude estimates for the same earthquake reported by different methods and/or organizations, or magnitude estimates that change in time, as being evidence of some vast conspiracy of government scientists to hide evidence of either ineptitude or deceit (so we seismologists are often a bit defensive).

Chuck Ammon at Penn State provides a good basic overview of how earthquake magnitudes are determined.


Here we just want to point out a few basic ideas that will help non-seismologists understand some of the technical issues the next time a journalist is making a big deal about, say, an earthquake that PNSN reports as an M3.2 and the NEIC (National Earthquake Information Center in Golden, CO) reports as an M3.5 (or whatever). First of all, of course, we're right! Well, so may be the NEIC. As right as anyone can be, at any rate, and here's why. Oh...and I'm only going to talk about what is called Local Magnitude, a measure based on the largest signal (peak amplitude) measured on seismographs. Other magnitude scales are based on the duration of shaking or matching the seismic waveform wiggle-for-wiggle to a model. Those are for a different blog (and our soon-to-be-published "Discovery & Outreach" wepages) and they are all, ultimately tied to the Local Magnitude, (or ML).

It's Beno Guttenberg and Charlie Richter's fault...


Back in the day (1930s), magnitudes started as simply the logarithm of the amplitude of the largest oscillations written on a specific seismograph at CalTech (a Wood-Anderson torsion seismograph measuring horizontal motion, if you must know!). The instrument Charles Richter used was the standard. Really for no other reason than that he had it and so he used it. He used the logarithm of the amplitude because there was such a large range of amplitudes that the compression of scale you get from taking logs made things easier to plot. Some darned earthquake that was 100 km away, made a trace with a peak displacement of 1 mm on his seismograph and he called that the standard earthquake--magnitude 1. An earthquake at the same distance that made a displacement of 10 mm was a magnitude 2, 100 mm was magnitude 3, and so on. "Smaller" earthquakes closer to the lab or "larger" earthquakes more distant might produce the same peak amplitude, so the formula includes a distance correction for earthquakes not at the standard distance. This explains an enduring mystery to many folks--negative magnitudes. An earthquake that wrote a record with a peak displacement of 0.1 mm would be a magnitude 0, right? And if that earthquake were closer than 100 km, well ... it would have a negative magnitude. Remember: Magnitudes are a relative size estimate. Nothing absolute about them (but, perhaps, Charlie Richter's arbitrary "standard" earthquake and seismograph); no physical units ascribed to them.


What do you mean by "bigger"?


But why do I feel compelled to encase the terms "smaller" and "larger" in quotes so much? Well, because earthquakes, like elephants or people, get bigger in different ways. Both a basketball player and a sumo wrestler are clearly "bigger" than a child or a short lightweight person, but that doesn't make them equally big or similar in appearance. Bigness, it turns out, may be in the eye of the beholder. When physical scientists wander into pickles like this they usually turn to the concept of energy to compare things. And so, too, with earthquakes.

An earthquake is slippage of one side of a fault against the other side of a fault. It turns out that a more robust measurement of the energy it releases is the distance it slips times the area that did the slipping. An M6 earthquake, for example, might involve a meter of slip on a fault plane 10 km by 10 km.  The simplest measure of the size (as energy) of the resulting earthquake, called the moment, is proportional to the area (length times width) of the fault, times the average amount of slip.  And since fault ruptures range from cms to hundreds of km in dimension (and slip from millimeters to meters), the difference in moment between the smallest and largest earthquakes varies by many, many orders of magnitude (getting the idea how the name "magnitude" for earthquake size originated?), and those non-logarithmic numbers are inappropriate to give to the public, most of whom (like me) are buffaloed by balancing a nice linear checking account balance. (Imagine: Nicely coiffed news reporter asks "Dr. Bodin, how big was the earthquake?", frowzy grumpy seismologist answers: "Oh it was approximately 54,000,000,000,000,000 newton-meters, give or take a few million, Bob". You see the problem....)

Devlish details...


There are invariably devils amongst the details.  It turns out that earthquakes radiate different amounts of energy as seismic waves in different directions, for example. (One way we tell the orientation of the fault that broke). And even the direction a rupture propagates can lead to different amplitudes in different directions (called "rupture directivity"). For this reason the number and geometry of stations around an earthquake, and how you average them (remember---magnitude is ONE number!)  is important in coming out with that one number everyone craves. Also, the soil or rock that a seismometer is placed on can de-amplify seismic motions, or even amplify them, so each site should have a "site correction" in addition. Also, the background noise at the time of the earthquake signal's passing can add to, or subtract from, the peak amplitude measured. Another reason to average in as many station estimates as you can. You get the idea.

So it's really quite easy to see how early on, we compute an automatic ML without looking at the traces, but then upon review decide that we should throw out channels that are really too noisy, or that may have been really broken at the time. And that changes the magnitude estimate to one we're more sure of. And how NEIC and/or PGC in Canada, and/or CISN in California look at the THEIR stations and compute a different magntitude value. As a rule of thumb, though, I'd say most seismologists aren't at all surprised by differences of up to .5 magnitude units in early estimates. However, when different organizations report the same magnitude type that vary by more than that after about 1/2 an hour from an earthquake, there was probably a more significant error involved.
https://pnsn.org/blog/2012/02/16/how-earthquake-magnitude-scales-work

Freitag, 25. Oktober 2019

SPACE VIEWS OF OCEAN TECTONICS

Exploring Ocean Tectonics from Space

Data on slight variations of the pull of gravity over the oceans are recorded with satellite altimetry, and are then combined to map the seafloor globally.






Global Map of Marine Gravity

Global Map View of Marine Gravity Anomaly


Take a Tour of the Seafloor:

North Atlantic (gravity anomaly)

North Atlantic (gravity anomaly)

North Atlantic (vertical gravity gradient)

North Atlantic (vertical gravity gradient)

Central Indian Ocean (gravity anomaly)

Central Indian Ocean (gravity anomaly)

Central Indian Ocean (vertical gravity gradient)

Central Indian Ocean (vertical gravity gradient)

Indian Ocean Triple Junction (vertical gravity gradient)

Indian Ocean Triple Junction (vertical gravity gradient)

Southwest Indian Ridge (vertical gravity gradient)

Southwest Indian Ridge (vertical gravity gradient)

Southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge (vertical gravity gradient)

Southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge (vertical gravity gradient)

Marine Gravity from Space Enables Discovery aboard Ships

The high-resolution multibeam sonar bathymetry data show that the newly charted seamount is not very prominent and rises just over 600 m from its base. However, it is wide enough to be detected in the gravity signal.
The MIST Expedition (cruise id: RR1319) was led by graduate students from Scripps Institution of Oceanography joined by participants from the Earth Observatory of Singapore. It was made possible by the University of California Ship Funds program.
The figure above was generated using a combination of GMT, Matplotlib, and a color palette courtesy of Matteo Niccoli.

Learn More:

Basics of Satellite Radar Altimetry
Satellite Radar Altimetry Missions
Related Scientific Publications

Author Information

Richard Francis
European Space Agency (ESA): European Space Research and Technology Centre (ESTEC), Keplerlaan 1, 2201AZ Noordwijk, The Netherlands
CryoSat-2 mission

Acknowledgments

The satellite altimetry data from CryoSat-2 is being provided by ESA, while data from the Jason-1 mission was provided by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Centre national d'études spatiales (CNES). We also incorporated data from the following missions: Envisat (ESA), ERS-1/2 (ESA), and Geosat (US Navy).
This work was supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF), the Office of Naval Research (ONR), the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA), and ConocoPhillips.

Give us Feedback

For issues related to this page (broken links and such), you may reach Soli Garcia by e-mail (esg006@ucsd.edu) or Twitter (@heyearth).
For technical issues related to the marine gravity grids, contact David Sandwell (dsandwell@ucsd.edu).


Publicity

Media Contact
SIO Communications Office: Mario Aguilera, Phone: +1-858-534-3624, Email: scrippsnews@ucsd.edu
Press Releases
These are the official publicity materials from the authors' institutions:

Donnerstag, 24. Oktober 2019

FATE AND DENIAL: FUKUSHIMA AND L'AQUILA DISASTERS


Fate and denial: The Fukushima reactor 3, and the L’Aquila earthquake 7


Professor of Earth & Environmental Sciences and Professor of International & Public Affairs, Columbia University
; Director of Graduate Studies Ph.D. Program in Sustainable Development
; Director of the Earth Institute Post-Doctoral program


The recent acquittal of the TEPCO executives in the Fukushima power plant tragedy hearkens back to the trial of the Italian seismologists who were charged with negligence after the L’Aquila, Italy, earthquakes. Both events raise the question: How much do you prepare for the most dreadful disasters, which result from truly large or rare paroxysms of the Earth?

Citation: Mutter, J.C., (2019), Fate and denial: The Fukushima reactor 3, and the L’Aquila earthquake 7, http://doi.org/10.32858/temblor.054

A sightseeing boat hurled onto a two-story building at Otsuchi, Iwate prefecture, by the 2011 Tohoku tsunami. This means that the tsunami barrier, visible at left, was overtopped by at least 10 m (33 ft).
A sightseeing boat hurled onto a two-story building at Otsuchi, Iwate prefecture, by the 2011 Tohoku tsunami. This means that the tsunami barrier, visible at left, was overtopped by at least 10 m (33 ft).


Three TEPCO (Tokyo Electric Power Company) senior management executives had been charged with negligence for their role in the Fukushima power plant tragedy that resulted from overtopping of protective walls around the plant. All have been acquitted of all charges. Reaction in Japan varied from outrage to a grudging, “of course; that’s what always happens.”
According to Japanese NHK, Kyodo News, Presiding Judge Kenichi Nagafuchi, in handing down the decision, said: “It would be impossible to operate a nuclear plant if operators are obliged to predict every possibility about a tsunami and take necessary measures.” That’s fair; no one can know everything about tsunamis. But we do know some things; in fact, we know quite a lot.

What we know about tsunamis
Tsunamis are generated by earthquakes that cause movement of the seafloor of the ocean. Because of that, a tsunami wave is nothing at all like a wind-driven ocean wave; tsunami waves advance relentlessly across oceans and build in height as they approaching shore. Tsunamigenic earthquakes occur mostly where two tectonic plates are steadily advancing toward one another. That means they do not occur everywhere in the world, and we know, from long experience, just where they are likely to occur. The east coast of Japan is one such place. Tsunamis are no stranger to Japan; the word itself is Japanese for “harbor wave,” though that is hardly an adequate description of these awful tyrants of nature. Parts of Japan even have seawalls to protect against tsunamis, including at Fukushima; they just weren’t high enough.

The 11 March 2011 tsunami overtops the tsunami barrier along the Tohoku coastline at Miyako, 120 km north of Sendai, Japan. Here you can see that tsunamis are not just water. They entrain massive amounts of heavy floating debris, including boats, cars, and buildings, which increase their lethal power.
The 11 March 2011 tsunami overtops the tsunami barrier along the Tohoku coastline at Miyako, 120 km north of Sendai, Japan. Here you can see that tsunamis are not just water. They entrain massive amounts of heavy floating debris, including boats, cars, and buildings, which increase their lethal power.


Similarities with the L’Aquila trial
It’s hard to think of this tragedy and not be reminded of the L’Aquila seven — the members of the Italian Major Risks Committee who were charged with negligence following the L’Aquila earthquake of April 6, 2009. Six were acquitted, and one received a suspended sentence. They were not charged with failing to make an accurate prediction of an earthquake, despite what thousands of seismologists around the world said, well before an English translation of the Italian language indictment was available. (Aren’t scientists supposed to work with data?) As the prosecuting attorney, Fabio Picuti allegedly stated, “Even a six-year-old knows you can’t predict earthquakes.”

Former President Obama and former Prime Minister Berlusconi tour the L’Aquila damage in 2009.
Former President Obama and former Prime Minister Berlusconi tour the L’Aquila damage in 2009.


You don’t have to be a six-year-old protégée to know this: If we could predict earthquakes, we would, and because we can’t, we don’t. Everyone knows that, including the seven members of the Major Risks Committee. They were charged with the manslaughter of 29 victims who, it was claimed, would not have died, had they not heeded the flippant, irresponsible statements from one member of the committee (its lone politician, not from the scientists), and returned to their homes in the evening to sleep. Everyone knows that earthquakes don’t kill people — buildings kill people — so many residents of L’Aquila had been sleeping outdoors when a series of tremors had raised concerns that something more dreadful was at hand. And as it turned out, they were right.

Working with what we know
We can’t know everything about earthquakes, and we can’t know everything about tsunamis. But we can act responsibly with what we do know. Seawalls were constructed around Japan to a height that seemed reasonable. In the region offshore Japan where earthquakes have the potential to be tsunamigenic, the largest earthquakes recorded for decades and decades were not much more than 7.5 in magnitude.
No seismologist is foolish enough to think that a larger earthquake was impossible. But the persistent recording of earthquakes up to, but not exceeding M7.5, led seismologists to think that conditions on the subducting plate in contact with the plate overriding it were such that when stress built to a level sufficient to create a Magnitude 7.5 earthquake, the crust would always rupture. The plate boundary could not, they thought, sustain higher stresses that would, in failure, create a larger earthquake. So, the walls were built to the tsunami height expected for a Magnitude 7.5 earthquake. That is neither flippant nor irresponsible. It seemed to make perfectly good sense.

Rubble from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant caused by the 2011 earthquake and tsunami. Photo by Gill Tudor for IAEA
Rubble from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant caused by the 2011 earthquake and tsunami. Photo by Gill Tudor for IAEA


Then the inconceivable happened — a Magnitude 9.0 earthquake where there had never been one before. Well, maybe not never. There is evidence that more than a thousand years ago, an earthquake of similarly huge magnitude had, in fact, occurred. But those planning for the height of the wall allegedly didn’t know that. Even had they known that once, a thousand years ago, there had been a Magnitude 9.0 earthquake with a huge tsunami wave, would they have built the walls twice as high? That’s at least what it would take to be sure to be safe.

How do you prepare?
This presents one of the most vexing questions for people working in disaster risk assessment. How much do you prepare for the most dreadful disasters, which result from truly large paroxysms of the Earth? Thankfully, these happen so rarely that they can almost be dismissed as statistical aberrations. In discussing these events, it’s common to cite Nassim Taleb’s “Black Swan” — something that is unpredictable, having a massive impact, for which after the fact, an explanation is concocted that makes it appear less random and more predictable than it was.
Very large earthquakes are not exactly random events, but they occur so infrequently that they might as well be. So now what? First, be honest. The science is not yet available to come anywhere close to predicting monster earthquakes, or any-sized earthquake for that matter. If you live anywhere near a subduction zone, it’s kismet whether you will experience the monster. In L’Aquila, it’s kismet whether a modest-sized earthquake will cause your roof to fall in and kill you in bed while you sleep. That’s how most people there died.
Of course, you could fortify your roof in L’Aquila, and you could build enormous walls in Japan. Or maybe enormous walls around critical infrastructure, like nuclear power plants; that makes some sense. But at what cost? In all of these cases, you have to have the means and motivation to weigh the costs against the risks. It’s the same wobbly rationale that causes so few people to have earthquake insurance. And the more the events you are preparing for seem random, the more people leave the consequences to fate. Denial is a coping mechanism.
But whether denial should be a coping mechanism around a nuclear power plant is another question entirely. The judge in the case clearly said that they prepared adequately, given what was known at the time. The question now is: What will the next seawall look like?

References
Dooley, B., Yamamitsu, E. and Inoue, M., “Fukushima nuclear disaster trial ends with acquittals of 3 executives.” New York Times, Sept. 19, 2019.
Oskin, B., “Japan earthquake and tsunami of 2011: Facts and information.” Live Science. Sept. 13, 2017.
Mutter, J.C., “An economic argument for reframing the geoscientist’s role in disaster mitigation.” EARTH Magazine. May 2017.
Sawai, Y., et al., “Shorter intervals between great earthquakes near Sendai: Scour ponds and a sand layer attributable to A.D. 1454 overwash.” Geophysical Research Letters. June 1, 2015.
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064167.
Namegaya, Y., and Satake, K., “Reexamination of the A.D. 869 Jogan earthquake size from tsunami deposit distribution, simulated flow depth, and velocity.” Geophysical Research Letters. Jan. 16, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058678.
Oskin, B., “Two years later: Lessons from Japan’s Tohoku earthquake.” Live Science. March 10, 2013.
Gammon, C., “Ancient earthquake foreshadowed 2011 Japan disaster.” Live Science., Dec. 13, 2012.
Sawai, Y., et al., “Challenges of anticipating the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami using coastal geology.” Geophysical Research Letters. Nov. 9, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053692.
Mutter, J.C., “Voices: From Haiti to Japan: A tale of two disaster recoveries.” EARTH Magazine. March 2012.
Mutter, J.C., “Voices: The confounding economics of natural disasters.” EARTH Magazine. July 2011.
Mutter, J.C., “Voices: Italian seismologists: What should they have said?” EARTH Magazine. July 1, 2010.
Mutter, J.C., “Voices: Should science dictate whether to rebuild after a natural disaster?” EARTH Magazine. May 2010.

IRIS: EFFECT OF SEISMIC WAVES ON BUILDINGS

1-Component Seismogram: Building responds to P, S, surface waves

How many different ways can an earthquake shake us?

An earthquake generates seismic waves that (1) penetrate the Earth as body waves (P & S) or (2) travel as surface waves (Love and Rayleigh). Each wave has a characteristic speed and style of motion. Here we exaggerate the motion by bouncing a building to show what sensitive instruments record as seismic waves arrive at the station. Animation to characterize behavior of three seismic waves. The seismogram shows the arrival times of the three generalized waves. This image just shows a single body-wave path through the Earth to avoid cluttering the image. Waves travel in all directions from an earthquake.
CLOSED CAPTIONING: .srt file is included with the download. Use appropriate media player to utilize captioning.

Keypoints:

This highly simplified cartoon is intended to portray:

Mittwoch, 23. Oktober 2019

DER SCHWEINEKRIEG


Nach fünf Jahren kehrte AfD-Mitbegründer Bernd Lucke Mitte Oktober als Professor an die Universität Hamburg zurück. Seine ersten beiden Vorlesungen mussten aufgrund von Terror und Gewalt abgebrochen werden. Lucke war nach seiner Rückkehr an die Universität bei Vorlesung als „Nazi-Schwein“ beschimpft, niedergebrüllt, körperlich bedrängt und am Reden gehindert worden.

Zeitgleich hatten linke Aktivisten beim Göttinger Literaturherbst eine Lesung de Maizières verhindert. De Maizière ergriff in der Aktuellen Stunde selber das Wort und machte sich für die Meinungsfreiheit stark: "Zur Meinungsfreiheit gehört, (...) dass ein umstrittener Professor, dessen Meinung mir nicht gefällt, in Hamburg eine Vorlesung halten kann." Und Seehofer betonte, solche Dinge wolle er nicht einfach hinnehmen. "Dazu kann ein Rechtsstaat nicht schweigen."

In der Debatte spielen auch Morddrohungen gegen Politiker eine Rolle sowie Angriffe auf deren Büros und Wohnhäuser. Seehofer erklärte, es werde inzwischen immer schwieriger, Kommunalpolitiker zu finden. (dpa/fra)

Lucke hatte auf die Frage eines Journalisten, ob die Ereignisse im Hörsaal nicht Ausdruck einer polarisierten Gesellschaft gewesen seien, geantwortet: Es gäbe eine gewisse Maßlosigkeit in der politischen Auseinandersetzung. „Ich meine, früher ist man als Judensau beschimpft worden bei uns. Jetzt heißt es also Nazischwein."

Lucke sieht die Freiheit der Rede in Deutschland gefährdet. "Den Störern liegt an der politischen Meinungsherrschaft: Sie wollen darüber entscheiden, was richtig und was falsch ist", schrieb Lucke in einem Gastbeitrag für die "Welt am Sonntag". Vielen gehe es weder um Dialog noch Argumentation, sondern um politische Herrschaft. Zudem beklagt Lucke demnach einen Mechanismus, wonach die Positionen von politisch Andersdenkenden vergröbert und verzerrt wiedergeben würden, um diese möglichst nachhaltig zu diskreditieren: "Wer den Euro kritisiert, ist ein Antieuropäer, wer das Kopftuch verbieten will, ist ein Rassist und Islamfeind, wer Greta kritisiert, ein Klimaleugner."

**********
Als Stellungskrieg bezeichnet man, im Gegensatz zum Bewegungskrieg, eine defensive Form der Kriegsführung, die von statischen Frontverläufen geprägt ist. Charakteristisch ist hier meist die Sicherung der Fronten durch ausgedehnte Systeme von Feldbefestigungen, weshalb es sich bei vielen Stellungskriegen um Grabenkriege handelte. (wiki)




Eine Frontlinie bezeichnet und stellt den Verlauf einer Kriegsfront dar. Es ist eine Grenze zwischen den sich bekämpfenden Feinden. Und diese hat sich in der politischen Debatte nun endlich herauskristallisiert. Es ist die Trennlinie zwischen den folgenden beiden Kriegsparteien: JUDENSÄUEN und NAZISCHWEINEN, also im KRIEG DER SCHWEINE, im SCHWEINEKRIEG.

Die ersten nahmen sich das Recht, das Judentum für die Zwecke politischer Anmaßung und Herrschaft zu missbrauchen, das Recht auf Zensur, Meinungsterror und Gesinnungsdiktatur, Infiltration der Wirtschaft, Politik und Medien durch ihre subversive V Kolonne, das Recht auf Spaltung und Destabilisierung des Rechtsstaates darunter seines Finanzsystems, Plünderung des Volkes, Zerfall der Gesellschaft und den Niedergang der Nation.

Die zweiten, ihre Gegner und Feinde, die von den ersten als Nazischweine etikettiert und beschimpft werden, nehmen sich das Recht, dies nicht hinnehmen zu wollen und kämpfen in Wort und Schrift sowie durch Proteste und andere Aktionen, um dem verderblichen jüdischen Totalitarismus Paroli zu bieten. Sie meinen, es gebe nicht die Freiheit zu einem solchen frevelhaften Treiben jener Feinde und Übeltäter, sondern es sei eine patriotische Pflicht eines jeden patriotisch gesinnten Bürgers, sich gegen den Erzfeind des deutschen Volkes und den Feind einer jeden anderen Nation mit allen Mitteln zur Wehr zu setzen.

Wer glaubt, dass der Krieg der Schweine sich nur auf Deutschland beschränkt, der irrt. Dieser Heiße Krieg fing schon im 20. Jahrhundert an und wird seit Jahrzehnten im Nahen Osten weiter geführt. Und als Kalter Krieg eskaliert er gegenwärtig vor unseren Augen in allen Ländern der Freien Welt. 

An den Aktionen gegen Lucke waren Mitglieder der sog. "Antifaschistischer Aktion" (Antifa) beteiligt. Diese wird u.a. von dem Judenschwein namens Georg Soros finanziell unterstützt - in Europa wie in Amerika, wo sie ähnliche Aktionen organisiert. Diese Terrororganisation der Judenschweine hat sich zum Ziel gesetzt, die den Juden unbequemen Kritiker zum Schweigen zu bringen. 

Mit anderen Worten stehen in diesem Stellungskrieg zwei Kräfte gegenüber:

# die Kräfte des Bösen, bad guys: Semiten/Juden und Antifa, allesamt Dreckschweine der Judenmafia ohne Moral
vs.
# die Kräfte des Guten, good guys: Antisemiten/Patrioten und Faschisten, allesamt Menschen, deren Handlungen moralisch legitimiert sind.

Es ist nun für eine jede Nation und ganz besonders für die deutsche Nation überlebenswichtig, dass diesen Schweinekrieg nicht diejenigen gewinnen, die daran als Judenschweine und ihre Handlanger beteiligt sind.

Jerzy Chojnowski
Chairman-GTVRG e.V.


Solche Bilder wie dieses kolportiert die deutsche Judenpresse, 
um den politischen Gegner zu diffamieren.

PS. Es gibt ein Computerspiel namens: Good Guys vs. Bad Boys

Dort wird man mit zwei Arten von Typen konfrontiert:

Der erste ist ein guter Typ: Diese Typen versuchen, in jeder Situation die Moral im Auge zu behalten und ihre Umgebung mit guten Taten zu bereichern.

Auf der anderen Seite versuchen die aggressiven Bösen durch ihre Machtanmaßung den Leuten zu zeigen, wer hier der Boss ist und machen alles kaputt.

Und welcher Typ bist du? Ein destruktiver Schießkerl und Arschloch? Oder ein moralischer, konstruktiv denkender und handelnder Mensch? Ein philosemitischer volksverräterischer Stiefellecker oder ein antisemitischer heimatliebender Patriot?... Entscheide dich auf welcher Seite du stehst! Das ist nämlich kein Computerspiel, sondern bitterer Ernst der Realität.